![]() “There is not a one-to-one between capacity and volume. If utilization decreases despite reduced total capacity, volume may decline faster than total capacity. If total ship capacity is reduced but average utilization is increased, TEU volume may fall at a slower rate than total ship capacity. The relationship between capacity and volume depends on utilization - the percentage of available container slots on the ships that are used. First, capacity is a strong leading indicator of throughput trends, because it shows carriers’ reaction to cargo demand, but ship-capacity reductions do not directly translate into volume reductions. will definitely fall, and fall sharply, both this month and next month - and possibly thereafter.ĭeclines will range from the teens on the East Coast to around 20% on the West Coast, both in relation to what was previously scheduled, and to the same month last year. The most important takeaway from the eeSea data is that container-ship capacity to the U.S. Blank sailings will reduce this month’s inbound capacity by 16% versus what was previously scheduled, and will lower next month’s capacity by at least 23%. The pattern is different on the East Coast, possibly because of the longer transit times from Asia. data includes Caribbean arrivals as well.)īlank sailings will cut inbound TEU capacity to the West Coast by 23% this month and at least 17% next month. (The East Coast data includes arrivals to the Gulf Coast as well as arrivals in the Caribbean Basin transshipment region the countrywide Asia-U.S. The eeSea trade-lane data compares Asia-West Coast arrivals to Asia-East Coast arrivals. “This is why blank sailings are a hugely important leading indicator,” said Sunboell, who likened the data to a purchasing manager’s index for container-line purchasing managers. If current bookings stay too low compared to historical norms, carriers increase blank sailings to compensate. “The carriers already know what sort of orders they have today, for example, for a ship leaving from Singapore three months from now, and they also know the capacity utilization they should be at for that ship three months before departure,” he said. ![]() The question is whether July, August and September will go up to the 19-21% range. Simon Sundboell, founder and CEO of eeSea, told FreightWaves, “If you look at July arrivals, cancellations were only 2% three weeks ago and now they are around 10%. May arrival numbers are set in stone, June numbers have room to creep up, and numbers for July and thereafter could increase substantially. Lower cancellation numbers starting in July do not prove a positive trend because the carriers have not decided on schedule changes that far out. Major capacity reductions in May and June are telling - and ominous. ![]() It is down 20% year-on-year in June, and 9% in July. ![]() The TEU capacity that remains in place after canceled sailings is down 21% this month year-on-year. Measured in twenty-foot-equivalent units (TEU), not number of sailings, headhaul capacity to North America from Asia is down 21% this month compared to the original (pro forma) schedules, 19% next month and 7% in July. Taken together, this data offers the clearest publicly available picture yet of how the coronavirus is affecting the container-shipping network that supplies America.Īccording to eeSea data, 51 of 243 scheduled North American arrivals from Asia have been cancelled this month 44 of 236 next month and 23 of 240 in July. The latest information, updated on Sunday, shows changes to headhaul capacity from Asia to North America, as well as changes to mainline capacity to individual U.S. American businesses want to know exactly how much arrival capacity will be reduced, exactly when it will be reduced, and how this reduced capacity will compare year-on-year.Ĭopenhagen-based eeSea - a platform founded in 2016 that maps container-industry schedules - has provided a snapshot of this U.S.-arrivals-centric data on blank sailings to FreightWaves. What matters to American businesses is U.S. West Coast two to three weeks later, or on the East Coast four to five weeks later. A container ship that doesn’t depart from Asia equates to a container ship that doesn’t arrive on the U.S. ports, cargo shippers, truckers and railways. Container lines have “blanked” (canceled) an unprecedented number of sailings to bring capacity in line with coronavirus-stricken cargo demand.īlank-sailings data is a key leading indicator for U.S.
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